Globalgrowthslowedthrough2022onadiminishingreopeningboost,fiscalandnmonetarytightening,China’sCovidrestrictionsandpropertyslump,andtheRussia-Ukrainewar.Weexpectglobalgrowthofjust1.8%in2023,asUSresiliencecontrastswithaEuropeanrecessionandabumpyreopeninginChina.TheUSshouldnarrowlyavoidrecessionascorePCEinflationslowsfrom5%nnowto3%inlate2023witha½ppriseintheunemploymentrate.Tokeepgrowthbelowpotentialamidststrongerrealincomegrowth,wenowseetheFedhikinganother125bptoapeakof5-5.25%.Wedon’texpectcutsin2023.Howcancoreinflationfallsomuchwithsuchasmallemploymenthit?Thenreason,wethink,isthatthiscycleisdifferentfrompriorhigh-inflationperiods.First,post-pandemiclabo...